Filed under: Stocks Investing
PELANCARAN Minggu Amanah Saham di Johor Bahru minggu lalu mengingatkan saya kepada zaman ketika berkhidmat di Amanah Saham Nasional pada 1978. Ketika itu ia baru ditubuhkan dan saya diterima di sana sebagai Pengurus Pemasaran ASNB.
Ketika itu, bagaimana bentuk skim saham amanah yang akan ditawarkan kepada masyarakat bumiputera belum lagi ditentukan. Kami disuruh oleh pihak atasan menjelajah ke seluruh negara untuk berceramah mengenai kebaikan melabur dalam saham amanah.
Saya telah mengambil seramai 50 pegawai pemasaran untuk bertugas di seluruh negara. Salah seorang tokoh yang selalu membantu berceramah bersama kami pada masa itu ialah Menteri Besar Johor sekarang, Datuk Seri Abdul Ghani Othman. Ketika itu, beliau ialah Dekan Fakulti Ekonomi di Universiti Malaya. Turut bersama kami ialah Profesor Manaf, juga dari Universiti Malaya.
Bayangkan bagaimana kami menerangkan tentang kebaikan saham amanah secara umum sahaja kerana pakej skim tersebut belum ditentukan lagi.
Untuk membentuk rancangan pemasaran ASNB, saya telah mengendalikan suatu kajian tentang tabiat simpanan di kalangan masyarakat bumiputera di seluruh negara. Kajian itu melibatkan jumlah sampel sebanyak 9,000 isi rumah.
Saya dengan pegawai-pegawai pemasaran ketika itu bertungkus-lumus masuk ke kampung-kampung untuk menemuduga orang Melayu bagi mendapatkan gambaran tentang tabiat menyimpan mereka.
Seorang daripada pegawai pemasaran ketika itu – kemudian dilantik sebagai pengurus pemasaran – ialah Datuk Seri Dr. Ahmad Zahid Hamidi (sekarang Menteri Pertahanan). Tuah badan.
Bukan mudah untuk mendapatkan maklumat daripada orang kampung yang tidak biasa ditemu bual. Tambahan pula tentang perkara peribadi seperti pendapatan dan simpanan mereka. Kami perlu banyak bersabar dan kerap memujuk untuk mendapatkan kerjasama mereka.
Apa yang jelas daripada kajian itu, masyarakat kampung memang berduit tetapi mereka tidak menunjuk-nunjuk. Tidak kurang juga yang banyak memiliki harta tetapi zahir mereka nampak biasa sahaja kerana tidak terpengaruh dengan perhiasan dunia.
Kesimpulannya, masyarakat luar bandar memang berduit dan ada yang tidak gemar menyimpan di bank kerana masalah riba. Hasil kajian tersebut saya gunakan untuk membentuk Rancangan Pemasaran ASNB.
Ketika itu, institusi kewangan tidak dibenar mengiklankan produk mereka di televisyen. Tetapi rancangan pemasaran saya itu mengandungi program pengiklanan dalam semua media sama ada radio, televisyen dan akhbar. Kami melantik syarikat PTM Thompson selaku agensi pengiklanan syarikat.
Pengerusi ASNB dan Permodalan Nasional Berhad (PNB) ketika itu ialah Allahyarham Tun Ismail Ali iaitu bekas Gabenor Bank Negara selama 20 tahun manakala Pengurus Besar ialah Tan Sri Desa Pachi.
Allahyarham Tun memang tidak gemar institusi kewangan mengiklankan produk di mana-mana sekalipun. Pada masa itu tiada siapa berani untuk menggunakan iklan sehinggalah ASNB berbuat demikian.
Sebagai satu langkah untuk menarik orang datang mendengar ceramah, saya mengadakan pertunjukan wayang gambar di padang bola di kampung-kampung seperti yang pernah dilakukan oleh Malayan Film Unit pada satu ketika dulu. Bezanya kami menayangkan filem Melayu, Hindustan, Inggeris serta kung fu dan bukannya dokumentari seperti dulu. Sampai di bahagian “kritikal”, filem diberhentikan sekejap dan ceramah mengenai saham amanah disampaikan.
Saya telah dihantar ke London untuk membentangkan Rancangan Pemasaran ASNB kepada pegawai-pegawai kanan Save and Prosper Ltd yang ketika itu merupakan syarikat saham amanah kedua terbesar di Britain.
Pengarah Eksekutif syarikat itu telah dilantik sebagai penasihat kepada ASNB. Saya membentangkan Rancangan Pemasaran ASNB yang menggabungkan penggunaan pendekatan secara kelompok kecil melalui ceramah dan secara meluas melalui iklan di media elektronik dan cetak kepada mereka.
Mereka mendapati rancangan pemasaran itu lebih baik daripada yang dibentangkan oleh seorang pegawai kanan PNB sebelum itu.
Sepucuk surat peribadi telah dihantar oleh Pengarah Pemasaran syarikat itu kepada Tan Sri Desa. Ia mengandungi komen tentang rancangan pemasaran tersebut.
Saya dapat tahu daripada setiausaha Tan Sri Desa antara kandungan surat tersebut termasuklah suatu tawaran jawatan kanan kepada saya di syarikat berkenaan. Begitu teruja mereka dengan pembentangan tersebut.
Bagi mencari kumpulan untuk diberikan penerangan dan ceramah, pegawai-pegawai pemasaran saya terpaksa duduk di Pendaftar Persatuan berhari-hari. Mereka berusaha mendapatkan senarai kesemua persatuan bumiputera yang ada pada masa itu.
Maklumat mengenai jabatan-jabatan kerajaan dan kementerian lebih mudah diperolehi. Ceramah berterusan dijalankan kepada persatuan, pertubuhan, syarikat, jabatan kerajaan dan mana-mana kumpulan yang berminat. Usaha ini termasuklah di Sabah dan Sarawak.
Saya terpaksa meninggalkan ASNB selepas menyedari ada pihak tertentu tidak memberikan sokongan penuh kepada rancangan pemasaran itu.
Saya dijemput balik selaku Pengurus Besar sewaktu Skim Amanah Saham hampir dilancarkan dan Tan Sri Desa ditukarkan ke Malaysian Mining Corporation. Khalid Ibrahim (kini Tan Sri – Menteri Besar Selangor) yang menjadi pengurus pelaburan, dilantik sebagai Pengurus Besar PNB.
Usaha mendapatkan kelulusan belanjawan Rancangan Pemasaran yang saya sediakan itu daripada Lembaga Pengarah yang dipengerusikan oleh Allahyarham Tun Ismail bukanlah mudah. Allahyarham terkenal dengan kesempurnaan dan tidak ramai yang berani membantah saranannya.
Apabila membentangkan belanjawan Rancangan Pemasaran itu, saya ingat lagi yang Allahyarham Tun tidak suka dengan peruntukan pengiklanan. Beliau tidak pernah membenarkan institusi kewangan mengiklankan produk ketika menjadi Gabenor Bank Negara. Sudah tentulah beliau juga tidak akan membenarkan ASNB berbuat demikian.
Saya terpaksa berkeras dengan pendirian bahawa pengiklanan diperlukan dan tidak setuju peruntukan dimansuhkan. Akhirnya selepas beberapa kali menerangkan kewajaran dan disokong oleh Ahli Lembaga Pengarah lain terutama sekali bekas Gabenor Bank Negara, Allahyarham Tan Sri Jaffar Hussein, Allahyarham Tun bersetuju.
Sewaktu pemilihan agensi pengiklanan untuk mengendalikan keperluan pengiklanan ASNB, setiap agensi yang berminat telah membentangkan persembahan mereka kepada Allahyarham Tun dan pengurusan kanan ASNB.
Ada juga di kalangan pihak yang tidak terpilih mengadu kepada Timbalan Perdana Menteri, Datuk Musa Hitam (kini Tun) ketika itu. Mereka menuduh pengurusan ASN berat sebelah. Oleh itu kami diminta menyerahkan dokumen prosedur dan faktor yang digunakan untuk pemilihan tersebut. Tun Musa akhirnya berpuas hati dengan prosedur pemilihan itu dan saya terselamat daripada ‘disalai’ oleh Allahyarham Tun.
Iklan televisyen yang paling berpengaruh ketika itu ialah Merah Sangatlah Mak Ngah yang memuatkan mak andam latah (Allahyarhamah Zaiton Hussein yang terkenal menerusi drama bersiri Opah) pada suatu majlis perkahwinan. Ketika melatah, beliau berulang kali menyebut “oh labur, labur, labur”.
Strategi pengiklanan ASNB itu telah memenangi tiga anugerah korporat daripada Persatuan Agensi Pengiklanan (6As) sebagai terbaik dalam televisyen, radio dan keseluruhan. Iklan radio pula menggunakan lagu berirama canggung. Sejak itu, institusi kewangan dibenarkan mengiklankan produk.
Skim Amanah Saham Nasional dilancarkan pada April 1981. Pakejnya begitu menarik kerana 100 unit percuma diberikan tetapi tidak boleh dijual selama 10 tahun.
Dalam pengendalian tugas di Amanah Saham Nasional kami dipantau rapi oleh Unit Pelaksanaan dan Penyelarasan, Jabatan Perdana Menteri di bawah Ketua Pengarah, Dr. Iwaz Karim.
Selain itu, kami perlu mengemukakan laporan setiap dua bulan sekali kepada Jawatankuasa Penyelaras Pelaburan dipengerusikan oleh Tun Musa sendiri.
Tidak mudah untuk bekerja dengan Dr. Iwaz. Beliau seorang yang tinggi tahap inteleknya, bijak, banyak membaca, garang dan terkenal dengan keangkuhan. Semasa mesyuarat beliau gemar membaling pensel dan fail apabila ada sesuatu yang beliau tidak setuju. Ketika itu, orang kanannya ialah Ketua Setiausaha Negara sekarang iaitu Tan Sri Sidek Hassan.
Dr. Iwaz meletakkan sasaran pencapaian ASNB setakat 31 Disember 1981 sebanyak RM150 juta dan perkara itu saya ingat kerana “disertakan sekali dengan amaran”.
Ketika itu tidak ada KPI seperti sekarang. Seingat saya bukan sekali terdapat perbezaan pendapat dengan beliau sewaktu berpuluhpuluh mesyuarat Jawatankuasa Penyelaras.
Suatu ketika selepas melihat keresahan dan kegelisahan – yang saya amati daripada bahasa badannya – saya menyarankan kepada Dr. Iwaz untuk meninggalkan perkhidmatan awam dan mencari sesuatu yang lebih mencabar di sektor swasta.
Saya menyarankan demikian disebabkan ketika itu beliau telah berkhidmat selama tujuh tahun. Menurut “Prinsip Peter” beliau telah mencapai tahap kurang kecekapan sebanyak satu kali setengah.
‘Berasap’ beliau bila saya katakan demikian. Tetapi rupa-rupanya cadangan itu telah diambil kira dan dia berhenti daripada perkhidmatan awam dan menceburkan diri dalam sektor swasta.
Bagaimanapun, satu kenangan manis yang tidak dapat saya lupakan ialah apabila di akhir Oktober 1981, kami di ASNB berjaya mengumpul RM800 juta iaitu lebih lima kali ganda daripada sasaran. Walaupun suatu pencapaian yang cemerlang, pengiktirafan yang diberikan tidak setimpal.
Saya tidak tunggu lama di ASNB kerana kerap bertembung pandangan dan banyak tindakan yang wajar kerap dipersoalkan oleh orang yang mengetuai syarikat induk ketika itu. Orang ini juga kuat mempengaruhi Pengerusi untuk menurut saranan-saranan beliau walaupun tidak munasabah.
Saya mendapati suasana itu tidak mengambil kira prestasi tetapi lebih mementingkan perkara remeh-temeh. Jadi ada baiknya saya bertukar angin.
Ternyata keputusan itu suatu hikmah kerana di akhir kerjaya, saya berjaya mengetuai satu-satunya institusi kewangan terulung negara iaitu Bursa Saham Kuala Lumpur (kini Bursa Malaysia) selama 19 tahun.
Sepanjang perkhidmatan di sana, bursa kita berada di tempat teratas di ASEAN.
DATO’ SALLEH MAJID ialah Felo Utama
Fakulti Ekonomi, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia. Beliau juga bekas Presiden Bursa Saham Kuala Lumpur (kini Bursa Malaysia)
http://www.utusan.com.my/utusan/info.asp?y=2009&dt=0425&pub=Utusan_Malaysia&sec=Rencana&pg=re_01.htm
Filed under: Real Estate, Stocks Investing | Tags: global financial crisis
this is how US faces the global financial crisis….banks still lend money to some1 who can’t pay (who is not eligible according to strict standard)…they make US citizen in debt up to their eyeball…irresponsible banks plus the complacent American citizens and US govt no regulations on banking system created the global crisis..
no market for our export means no jobs mean our economy will be in deep troubles.
so buying opportunities for us by end of march? pbbank at RM5?? prime properties auctioned?? hopefully i have lots of cash to grab all the opportunities.
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Eve Pidgeon, communications director for a nonprofit credit counseling service in Michigan, says she’ll never forget the day she realized she owed more than her home was worth.
“I was at work, saying, ‘Can you believe I can’t refinance my house?’” recalls Pidgeon, who had made timely payments on her 30-year mortgage for nine years and has a credit score over 800. “Then a [colleague] said, ‘You’re upside down — like our clients.’ I thought, ‘My God — I am?’ I thought that happened to people who had $50,000 on credit cards and refinanced into adjustable-rate mortgages.”
A Canadian immigrant who became a U.S. citizen, Pidgeon bought her home in 1999. Her mortgage broker said she qualified for a $240,000 loan — on her then-salary of $33,000 per year and her husband’s volatile income as a freelance photographer.
Passing Up the Big, Fabulous House
“Calculations for insurance, escrow for property taxes — none of that was considered,” recalls Pidgeon, who has two children. “Of course we wanted a big, fabulous house, but when I crunched the numbers, I thought, ‘If the cost of any one thing in our [budget] goes up, we’re going to be in a deficit every month.’ It put a lot of pressure on my marriage because my husband said, ‘You’re terrible at math; this is a professional who knows what he’s doing, and we should get this house.’”
Instead they bought a quaint 1918 Victorian for $135,000. Pidgeon, who eventually divorced and navigated a job layoff without ever missing a mortgage payment or accumulating high-interest credit card debt, has refinanced twice — from 8 percent to 6.8 percent, and then again to 6.3 percent, always locking in for 30 years. She wanted to refinance again when rates slipped under 5 percent, but widespread foreclosures have depressed her home’s value; comparable dwellings are selling at or below the $117,000 she still owes.
Pidgeon is emblematic of the financial insecurity afflicting millions of Americans who are being punished despite doing all the right things with their money. Hard work, steady savings, and thoughtful sacrifices haven’t protected their jobs, nest eggs, or home values from an economy twisted by fraud and stupidity, coldly indifferent to responsibility and productivity.
Homeowners Underwater
By one estimate, 12 million homeowners – one in six — are underwater
on their mortgages. In 20 major metropolitan areas, home prices dropped an average 18 percent in November compared to the year-earlier period, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller Index, released earlier this week.
Unemployment rose in all 50 states in December and surpassed 10 percent in two — Rhode Island and Pidgeon’s home state of Michigan. Moreover, in the year following October 2007 — the stock market’s peak — more than $1 trillion of stock held in 401(k)s and other defined-contribution plans evaporated, according to the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College.
“The new insecurity doesn’t look like the old insecurity — grainy Dorthea Lange photos of Depression-era men and women, their weathered faces projecting despair and helplessness,” writes Yale political scientist Jacob Hacker in his book ‘The Great Risk Shift’. “Those who experience it have homes, cars, families, degrees. They’ve usually tasted the fruits of success, if sometimes only fleetingly. They very rarely end up on the streets or in shelters. For most, insecurity is a private experience, hidden away behind closed doors, felt in quiet despair.”
A Fair Question in Unfair Times
Consider a reader’s comment last week following my column on the difference between optimism and magical thinking. The poster wrote that he was a computer programmer who had been employed for 25 years, worked hard, lived frugally, and was now laid off. His 401(k) had lost half its value and his home equity had declined sharply.
“Please tell me again why you believe I should be optimistic?” he wrote. “Is it that you expect folks (suckers) in my situation to get up, brush off, and once again toil to accumulate wealth that will be seized from me in one way or another?”
That’s a fair question in unfair times. At the very least, we can mitigate the risks of having our hard-earned cash seized in the future by asking ourselves a series of questions:
1. Do you live within your means? How long could you live without your current income if you lost your job? Do you know exactly how much money comes in and where it goes each month? What areas of your budget could you slash immediately? What expenses can you cut back for the next year and reallocate toward a cash cushion?
2. If you consistently ratchet up your lifestyle to match rising income, can you
divert half of any raise, bonus, or other increase you receive into savings instead?
3. Have you considered a strategy to obtain severance or other benefits in the event you’re laid off? How up-to-date is your resume and network of contacts, and what would be the first five steps you would take to find a new position? Have you investigated your options for continuing or obtaining health insurance?
4. If you are living on two incomes, how can you shift your lifestyle and spending to rely on one for needs and the other for wants?
5. How well do your insurance policies protect you and the people you love? Have you shopped around for the lowest premiums?
6. If you carry high-interest, revolving debt, what is your plan for eliminating it, and how long will it take?
7. Do you have written goals — short-, medium- and long-term — for your money that reflect what you value most, with specific dollar amounts and time frames? Do you know how fast the cost of your goal is rising?
8. Do you understand how your money is invested, how much risk you’re taking, and what expenses and fees you are paying? Do you understand the tax implications of your financial decisions (and your geographic choices)? If not, are you making an effort to learn about these critical areas of your portfolio?
9. Are you taking good care of your health to reduce the risk of financially devastating medical costs?
10. Do you give as much energy to your family and friends as you do to your finances? (Losing your shirt is a lot more painful when you go through it alone.)
The Risks We Face
“Studies consistently suggest that we are good at some kinds of risk assessments and very bad at others,” Hacker writes. “And unfortunately, the kinds of risks that we face today — diffuse, interwoven, mounting, uncertain — are precisely those we are most likely to overlook. Economic losses for families are often like system failures in engineering — they cascade from seemingly small events into major crises. Yet few of us worry much about the small events that can set off the chain.”
Pidgeon says she never imagined she’d be in her first home nearly a decade after she bought it, but she is focused on the positive. “If I could [refinance], I could gain a few hundred dollars in my monthly surplus and use it to stimulate the sagging local economy,” she says. “But my priority was to move to the States and make the most of my education and my career, and raise a wonderful family in a safe, comfortable, and loving environment. Whether I’m paying 6.3 percent or 4.5 percent, I feel very proud that I accomplished that.”
http://finance.yahoo.com/expert/article/moneyhappy/137398
Filed under: Real Estate, Stocks Investing | Tags: bank negara, global finaancial crisis
Global financial crisis already affects the real economy since 2 months ago. The economy is getting worst especially in US &Europe. US & Europe are the market for most of Malaysian products. It will affect Malaysian economy by end of Q1.
I think our market is already affected that is why Bank Negara cuts OPR by 75 basis points which are a lot.
Troubles time ahead for unprepared ones and opportunities time for those who are prepared for this one.
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By CATHERINE RAMPELL Furloughs, wage reductions, hiring freezes and shorter hours simply did not do enough. A year into this recession, companies across the board are resorting to mass job cuts. Home Depot, Caterpillar, Sprint Nextel and at least eight other companies announced on Monday they would cut more than 75,000 jobs in the United States and around the world — a gloomy start to the workweek for employees anxious about holding their own as the economy sinks. Caterpillar, the maker of heavy equipment, is slashing its payrolls by 16 percent. Texas Instruments said late in the day that it would eliminate 3,400 jobs, or 12 percent of its work force. Jobs began disappearing in home building and mortgage operations early in the recession, then across finance and banking more generally. Now the ax is falling across large swaths of manufacturing, retailing and information technology, taking out workers from New York to Seattle. Just last week, Microsoft announced its first significant job cuts ever. Because companies like Microsoft have invested in their workers’ skills and knowledge, they usually delay major work force reductions as long as they can. But with orders for new products and services drying up and financing tight, employers are looking to shrink their costs drastically and are slashing their payrolls, anticipating a protracted decline for business in 2009. Monday’s parade of negative news comes after months of announcements from other prominent companies like Citigroup, General Electric, Nokia and Harley-Davidson. On Wednesday, the tally of mass layoffs for December will be released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Already, the bureau says the United States economy has shed 2.55 million jobs since the recession began, pushing the unemployment rate up to 7.2 percent last month. The latest round of job cuts — and the additional rounds likely to come as these move through the economy — mean more pain ahead for states as unemployment insurance claims rise and deplete state budgets. Congress has proposed setting aside $43 billion to assist the states and to provide for new and current recipients of unemployment checks. That money is intended to increase the weekly benefit amounts; to extend how long people can collect payments; to cover more types of workers, like part-timers; and to help states distribute benefits more quickly. It is based largely on an estimate that the unemployment rate will rise to 8 to 9 percent this year even with a stimulus package, according to the proposal summary from the House Appropriations Committee. But if unemployment soars into double digits, as some economists expect, the financing may not be enough. “The economy is deteriorating at a faster clip than even the most dreary forecasts had expected,” said Joseph Brusuelas, an economist who, bucking the current job market trend, will soon start a new job at Moody’s Economy.com. “At the current trend, $43 billion will not be sufficient should we breach 9 percent unemployment and maybe reach into the double digits.” President Obama cited the layoff announcements in remarks Monday urging Congress to approve an $825 billion economic stimulus package of tax cuts, emergency benefits and public spending projects. “These are not just numbers on a page,” he said. “As with the millions of jobs lost in 2008, these are working men and women whose families have been disrupted and whose dreams have been put on hold.” Charles DiGisco, of Randolph, N.J., is one casualty of the downturn. He said he had been looking for work since Sept. 18, when he lost his job as a vice president for sales and marketing at Master Cutlery, a knife maker. He frequently hears a familiar refrain from would-be employers: “We would hire you, but we’re not hiring anybody.” His family’s monthly expenses are four times what Mr. DiGisco collects from unemployment, and he said his family was selling two of its three cars and might dispose of some stocks or dip into retirement funds to keep paying the mortgage. “It takes me 20 years to save it, and it takes me five months to go through it,” Mr. DiGisco said. While stimulus spending on public works may take some time to get going, some companies could bring back displaced workers quickly if the government initiative generated new orders. Caterpillar, for example, had announced buyouts, wage freezes and work stoppages around the holidays because of “a dramatic decline in orders,” said Jim Dugan, a spokesman for the company, based in Peoria, Ill. On Monday, the company said that a total of 15,000 permanent and temporary jobs, out of about 125,000, would have been eliminated by the end of this week, and that it would trim 5,000 more by the end of the first quarter. Should orders for earthmovers and other heavy equipment improve, which some expect as countries around the world start building bridges, highways and other public works to help create jobs, Caterpillar can recall some workers quickly. Many companies, though, may not rush to increase staffs even if business begins to pick up. Andrew Stettner, deputy director of the National Employment Law Project, said downturns often motivate companies to restructure business models permanently, meaning jobs they cut now are unlikely to be replaced. “Structural change is put into overdrive because of the recession,” he said, “so who knows for sure how a company like Microsoft will fare?” Sprint Nextel, which announced Monday that it was eliminating 8,000 jobs, or roughly 14 percent of its work force, is similarly facing some tough restructuring decisions as it continues to hemorrhage subscribers. After the worst holiday shopping season in decades, retailers are letting employees go in droves. More than 66,600 retailing jobs were lost in December, the worst period since the late 1930s. Home Depot, the home improvement retailer, said Monday it would cut 7,000 jobs, or 2 percent of its workers. Some 5,000 cuts will come through store closings, largely of its upscale Expo chain; the rest will come from corporate support, many at its Atlanta headquarters. Carol B. Tomé, Home Depot’s chief financial officer, said the company had explored ways to save Expo, but “as we kept looking at alternatives, the business kept getting softer and softer.” Finally, she said, executives simply realized, “we can’t fix it.” For most of last year, relatively healthy demand for exports gave global companies like Caterpillar a cushion. But with downturns deepening across Europe and Asia, and the dollar strengthening, global demand for costlier American goods has faltered. “There really isn’t any hiding place for companies anymore,” said Nigel Gault, chief United States economist at IHS Global Insight. “The recent numbers coming in from the rest of the world are disastrous.” Jack Healy, Stephanie Rosenbloom, Louis Uchitelle and Jenna Wortham contributed reporting.
PETALING JAYA: Public Bank Bhd’s fourth-quarter earnings announced Tuesday are within analysts’ expectations, but earnings outlook is still expected to be dampened by the weaker economic prospects this year. For the quarter ended Dec 31, Public Bank posted a slightly lower pre-tax profit of RM812.9mil compared with RM821.2mil in the previous corresponding period. This was due to an increase in loan loss allowance of about RM46mil as well as lower “other operating income” from unit trusts fund management business and stockbroking activities. However, a lower effective tax rate during 2008 that lowered tax expense and zakat to RM156.3mil in the quarter, compared with an expense of RM213.4mil in the previous corresponding quarter, helped boost net profit for the period under review. Net profit for the fourth quarter at RM654mil was 12.8% higher year-on-year and a 6.1% increase from the third quarter. An analyst at a major brokerage said: “Public Bank has met ours and everyone’s expectations. This means that it will do okay but (earnings) will still be affected by higher non-performing loans (NPLs) that are expected to hit the banking sector this year. “However, I think Public Bank will be better off than most other players in the banking sector due to strong asset quality and stringent credit control that it has been demonstrated so far.” Public Bank’s asset quality has improved as at Dec 31, with its gross NPL balance decreasing 13.8% to RM1.21bil compared with RM1.4bil at Dec 31, 2007. The NPL ratio has also improved to 0.9% from 1.2% a year ago. An analyst at another major brokerage said the bank showed “quite strong growth on many fronts, but Hong Kong asset quality took a hit in syndicated loans.” AmResearch deputy head Fiona Leong in a report also expressed similar sentiments. “As warned, loan loss allowance jumped 41% quarter-on-quarter due to additional provision made on impaired loans of Public Bank’s operations in Hong Kong. “There were also specific provisions made on certain loans secured by properties exceeding seven years with zero value assigned to collateral.” However, Leong – who maintains a “buy” call on the counter – said Public Bank’s 6% quarter-on-quarter increase in net profit to RM654mil in the fourth quarter was an achievement. “Although net interest income dipped 1% quarter-on-quarter, a 16% increase in non-interest income and a 17% rise in Islamic banking income pulled up Public Bank’s bottomline,” she said. Public Bank’s gross NPLs rose 4% quarter-on-quarter to RM1.2bil as the bank’s small and medium enterprise customers experienced stress in the fourth quarter, but net NPL ratio remained low at 0.9% while loan loss coverage was high at 160%. Leong sees capital ratios remaining healthy with core capital ratio at 7.7% and risk weighted capital ratio of 13.1% as at end-2008. http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2009/1/22/business/3082210&sec=business
Filed under: Bank, Stocks Investing | Tags: global financial crisis, public bank
Public Bank founder and chairman Tan Sri Teh Hong Piow expects the banking industry to remain resilient this year and Public Bank to outperform the industry growth rates for deposits and loans.
WHAT is your outlook for the banking industry in Malaysia in 2009?
The banking industry is expected to remain profitable and sound although growth of the Malaysian economy is expected to moderate to around 3.5% in 2009. The growth outlook, which is based on the strength of domestic demand and the proactive management of the economy, is still respectable considering that some of the developed economies have entered into a recession and will remain in recession this year. While the inflationary pressures in Malaysia should ease further in the first half of 2009, we expect the unemployment rate to inch up slightly due to significantly slower external demand. We believe that the action to support global financial markets and to provide massive fiscal stimulus and monetary easing will limit the decline in world growth. Based on this economic outlook, we expect loan growth for the banking industry to be around 7% this year.
The banking industry in Malaysia will remain resilient due to its strong capitalisation, healthy asset quality and improved risk management standards and practices. Credit goes to Bank Negara for the successful reforms and capacity building measures which have been taken to strengthen the banking system after the Asian financial crisis in 1997/98. The banking industry is well capitalised with the risk weighted capital ratio of 12.6% in October 2008, which was well above the minimum international requirement of 8%.
The industry’s net non-performing loans ratio at 2.4% in October 2008 is at its lowest since the Asian financial crisis 10 years ago. We also expect the impact of the financial turmoil and credit crunch in the West on the banking industry in Malaysia to remain muted as the industry has no significant exposure to the subprime and other toxic securities that had hit institutions in the US and other countries.
Banks in Malaysia have built more robust corporate governance and risk management frameworks to overcome the challenging economic environment.
The preemptive and precautionary measures introduced in October 2008 with Bank Negara standing ready to provide liquidity and the Government providing a full guarantee to all ringgit and foreign currency deposits in the banking system should sustain the high confidence in the Malaysian financial system. We believe the Government and Bank Negara still have ample capacity to undertake the appropriate policy response to avoid a severe economic downturn.
Tan Sri Teh Hong PiowWhat is your strategy to ride out the economic slowdown?
Our core business strategies remain unchanged in that the Public Bank group will continue to focus on its organic growth strategies to grow its retail loans and core customer deposits. For 2009, we expect the group’s loans and deposits to increase at above industry rates by tapping on the group’s competitive product packages, competitive pricing, superior delivery standards, strong PB brand and extensive delivery channels.
The high rate of loans growth will continue to be supported by growth in home mortgages, passenger vehicle hire-purchase financing, personal financing and retail commercial loans to the small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs).
In growing its funding base, the Public Bank group will continue to promote both retail and wholesale deposits to ensure that the group continues to maintain a healthy loans to deposits ratio. As part of long-term ongoing efforts, the Public Bank group will accelerate growth in fee-based incomes, particularly by tapping on Public Mutual’s fund management business, the long-term bancassurance tie-up with ING Group and a broader range of wealth management services.
As a prudent banking group, the Public Bank group will remain focused on maintaining its risk management standards to ensure that it maintains the best asset quality in the banking industry in Malaysia.
Public Bank has been voted as the best in Asia by several publications. What aspects of your business will you be seeking to improve on in 2009?
Our key business goal is to ensure that the Public Bank group continues to sustain its superior financial results amidst the challenging economic environment ahead. To achieve this goal, we need to drive retail loans and retail deposits, fee incomes and also asset quality management.
Management resources will continue to be devoted to efforts to further increase the productivity of the group’s staff and branch network and also to increase the contributions from overseas operations.
Retail banking and SME lending has been a big success for Public Bank. How would this segment perform in 2009?
Retail banking has been and will continue to be the main driver. Currently, the Public Bank group’s retail banking contributes close to 80% of the group’s profits.
Within retail banking, lending to households, comprising mainly residential mortgages and passenger vehicle hire-purchase financing, and lending to business enterprises, particularly SMEs, for purchase of operating premises and working capital, constitute about 86% of the group’s total loans outstanding. From December 2007 to September 2008, the Public Bank group’s retail lending to households and businesses increased at an annualised rate of 20%.
Going forward, the group’s retail banking initiatives will continue to drive business growth. As part of its core business strategies, the group is committed to support the Government’s ongoing efforts to further develop and strengthen SMEs, including bumiputra SMEs and micro enterprises, as a key engine of domestic economic activity. To grow its SME lending, the Public Bank group will continue to provide competitive financing packages as well as promote the various Bank Negara funds for SMEs. The group will continue to provide a full range of trade bills facilities to SMEs. In 2009, the group’s lending to SMEs is expected to continue to expand at a healthy pace.
How do you see the group’s business in Hong Kong and China in 2009? How will the Public Bank group continue its expansion drive abroad?
The Public Bank group expects its businesses in Hong Kong and China to continue to grow in 2009 amidst the challenging economic environment and competitive pressures in that market.
Currently, the Hong Kong economy is projected to slow to around 2% in 2009 with significant downside risks to that forecast. Because of economic uncertainties, declining local property prices and a potential rise in unemployment, demand for financing by consumers and businesses in Hong Kong are likely to ease.
Despite the economic slowdown, the Public Bank group’s operations in Hong Kong and China have the capacity to withstand the challenges and continue to contribute significantly to the group’s results.
As in domestic operations, the Public Bank group will continue to focus on organic growth strategies and accelerate growth in retail loans and retail deposits.
Various delivery standards, which have been established quantitatively and implemented successfully in Malaysia, will be implemented by the group’s overseas operating units. This year the Public Bank group plans to open 16 new branches in Hong Kong and China, Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam and Sri Lanka. The group’s initiatives to promote the PB brand abroad continue unabated.
http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2009/1/1/business/2889648&sec=business
Filed under: Real Estate, Stocks Investing | Tags: credit card bubble, global financial crisis, world war 3
Previously in my last post on global financial turmoil,
I mentioned the phases in the global financial turmoil…i want to relook back at what phases are we in…
OK back to the global financial turmoil. For me there would be 4 phases.
1) Bankcrupties of Banks
- Wachivia – bankrupt
- Washington Mutual- bankrupt
2) Bankcrupties of Investment Banks
- Lehman Brothers
- Bear Stern
- Morgan Stanley
3) Bankcrupties of Hedge Funds
- the most popular is Madoff
4) Impact to main street (e.g automobile companies, retailers etc)
- Big 3 request for bail outs
- lots of companies lay off their workers -
I would like to add the 5th one…Credit card bubble. we know americans are really having lots of credit card debts.. it is a matter of time before they credit card companies will be having the same problems as the other financial institutions.
Malaysian economy is already affected especially in the electronics sector. We will only feel the impact by H1, 2009. As I said this will be opportunity to buy stocks and properties.
But there is worst, if this is true, there is no point to invest and quite scary prediction by Mathias Chang. World War III
it seems all central banks have cut their BLR to stimulate the economy. when Malaysia will feel the impact? when the stocks will go down and create opportunity for me? so i expect we will see the impact in Q1 2009 or Q2 2009.
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The decision by Western Digital, the world’s second-largest hard-disk drive manufacturer,
to close its Sarawak plant in the Samajaya Jaya Free Industrial Zone (SJFIZ) here due to
the global economic meltdown will affect 1,500 workers, state assistant minister for
Industrial Development Datuk Daud Abdul Rahman said. He said the affected workers, all
locals, including 500 engineers and technicians accounted for 10% of the 15,000 workers
in the electronic industry at SJFIZ. (Bernama)
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Vietnam cut the benchmark interest rate to 8.5% from 10% effective Dec. 22, marking the
biggest reduction this year, to avert an economic slowdown. Policy makers also reduced
the refinancing rate to 7.5% from 9%. (Bloomberg)
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The Bank of Japan cut its benchmark interest rate to 0.1% from 0.3%, increased
purchases of government debt and announced plans to buy commercial paper for the first
time as the deepening recession starves companies of funds. (Bloomberg)
—————
The Bank of Thailand will try to use monetary policy to boost the nation’s economy,
Deputy Governor Atchana Waiquamdee said. “Our focus is how to pull the economy out of
the slowdown as much as we can,” Atchana said. “We can’t expect much help from fiscal
spending amid political instability.” (Bloomberg)
Filed under: Stocks Investing | Tags: global recession, retail sectors retrenched
Malaysia Garments Wholesale Merchants Association president Datuk Ang Say Tee
said the global economic meltdown had affected all local businesses and next year would
be tough. “Merchandisers have started reducing the import volume of garments and this
will definitely lead to a downtrend in retail sales,” he said. He projected that garment
imports would drop by 30% to 40% in 2009 and about 20% of the staff in both garment
manufacturing and retail sectors will be retrenched. (Star)
———————–
US non-farm payrolls recorded 533,000 job losses in November, from a loss of 320,000
in October, bringing the year’s total job losses to 1.9m. This exceeded market expectations
for a loss of 325,000 jobs in the month.
• Job losses were spread across a wide variety of industries- manufacturing, leisure and
hospitality, construction and even, in the midst of the holiday shopping season, retail.
Also seeing sharp declines were professional and business services, and financial
services, at the heart of the current crisis.
• Government hiring has stayed strong throughout the downturn, adding another 7,000
jobs in November. Education and health services also grew payrolls, with a gain of
52,000 employees.
• The unemployment rate rose to 6.7% from 6.5% in October. (CNN Money)
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US home foreclosures recorded 1.35m in 3Q, driving the foreclosure rate up to 2.97%,
the Mortgage Bankers Association said. That’s a 76% increase from a year ago, according
to the group’s National Delinquency Survey. At the same time, the number of homeowners
falling behind on their mortgages rose to a record 6.99%, up from 5.59% a year ago, the
association said. This means that one in 10 borrowers in: place America are either
delinquent or in foreclosure. (CNN Money)
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India’s central bank slashed key interest rates by 1% point on 6 Dec amid signs of
slowing economic growth and damaged investor confidence following the recent terror
attacks in Mumbai. The cut will bring the benchmark repo rate from 7.5% to 6.5%. That’s
the lowest since June 2006 and down from an October high of 9%. Reverse repurchase
rate was lowered from 6% to 5%. (SBT)
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Malaysia’s manufacturers may face a “tough year” in 2009 as the global recession cuts
demand for computer chips, components and electronic goods, a trade group said after a
survey of local businesses. Next year will be “a very trying time, a tough year,” Datuk
Mustafa Mansur, the president of the Federation of Malaysian Manufacturers. “We will feel
the impact.”
• Four-fifths of the respondents in the trade group’s survey expected new orders and
sales forecasts to be “strongly” or “moderately” hurt by the global recession.
• About 77% of the survey’s respondents said their capital investments would be
“negatively affected,” Mustafa said. Job retrenchments were also expected, he said.
(Star)
———————————–
The Bank of Canada lowered its benchmark interest rate, the target rate for overnight
loans between commercial banks, by 75bps to 1.50%, the lowest since 1958 and signalled
more action may be needed as economic growth sputters amid a “broader and deeper”
global slump. (Bloomberg)
———————————-
There is an downward trend in companies granting salary increases and bonuses for their
employees in 2009, in view of the global economic uncertainties, a survey by the
Malaysian Employers Federation (MEF) indicated.
· The overall average forecasted salary increase for executives in 2009 was lower at
5.53% compared with an earlier forecast of 5.78%.
· For non-executives, the number is expected to be at 5.59% for next year from the 5.85%
estimated earlier.
· The actual salary increase for 2008 was at 6.09% for executives and 5.69% for nonexecutives.
· Forecasted salary increase for executives in the manufacturing sector was lower at
5.50% compared with the 5.56% in non-manufacturing sector.
· In terms of bonus, 72.1% of the respondent companies estimated it would be granted to
non-executives in 2009 while 59.8% forecast the payment for executives.
· The average forecasted bonus payment for non-executives in 2009 was lower at 1.78
months compared with the 1.99 months estimated earlier.
· The bonus payment for executives will be at 1.98 months in 2009 as against 2.10
months forecasted before.
· About 90% of the respondent companies granted a bonus to their employees this year
with the average contractual bonus for non-executives at 1.74 months and 1.85 months
for executives. (Bernama)
————————————-
Minister of International Trade and Industry Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin said several
industries in the manufacturing sector especially those involved in the steel industry have
begun to experience a drop in demand by as much as 30 to 60%. However, it is not as bad
as what has been happening in other countries where there have been layoffs in the
sector. The associations taking care of the sector have requested the banks in the country
to extend the loan payment term for their players or reschedule their repayments to enable
these players to repay their loans. (Bernama)
————————-
IATA has reduced this year’s projected industry losses to US$5bn, from its earlier
projection of US$5.2bn. But the picture, going into next year, is ugly, with Asia-Pacific
carriers could see their losses doubling from this year’s forecasted US$500m to more than
US$1.1bn by the end of 2009.
· Global industry revenues are expected to decline to US$501bn in 2009, a fall of
US$35bn from the US$536bn in revenues forecasted for 2008.
· Yields will decline by 3% (and an even worse 5.3% when adjusted for exchange rates
and inflation).
· Passenger traffic is expected to decline by 3% in 2009, following growth of 2% in 2008 -
the first decline since 2001. Cargo traffic is expected to fall by 5%, following a drop of
1.5% in 2008.
· The 2009 oil price is expected to average US$60 per barrel, totalling up an industry bill
of US$142bn. This would be US$32bn lower than in 2008, when oil averaged US$100
per barrel. (SBT)
Filed under: Stocks Investing | Tags: bank negara impact of OPR 3.25% to Banks
In my previous post, i asked myself what is the impact to the banks and below is the impact analyzed by CIMB Securities.
my previous post : http://stocksinvesting.wordpress.com/2008/11/24/bank-negara-reduces-opr-to-325-from-350/
——————–
Bank Negara (BNM) announced an earlier-than-expected 25bp cut in the overnight policy
rate and an unexpected reduction in the statutory reserve requirement (SRR) from 4% to
3.5%. The rate cut will lead to a margin squeeze for banks, potentially lowering their
earnings by 4-5%. This will be partly offset by the SRR relaxation, which will enhance
banks’ net earnings by 1%. The net impact on earnings is still a negative 3-4%. We retain
our earnings forecasts while we wait for the banks to announce their new BLRs. We are
likely to cut our earnings forecasts by 3-5% and our target prices by 2-5%. Maintain
NEUTRAL due to the negative impact from rate cut and concerns over slower loan growth
and the rise in NPLs. Public remains our top pick for the sector.
source: CIMB Research
not bad PBBANK paid out RM2 per share in gross dividends or RM0.67 per year. I like public bank coz for me it a sure value compared to others banks in Malaysia. I am still waiting for Public banks share to go below RM8 before start buying.
My target is to get 8% of nett dividend
—————————–——————————-
For example, an investor who bought Public Bank shares at RM6.30 three years ago and continued to hold on to the stock until Friday would be sitting on a capital gain of RM2.20 per share.
During that three-year period, Public Bank paid out RM2 per share in gross dividends.
http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2008/11/24/business/2603991&sec=business
